Morning Action @ 7 AM – Thursday, July 10th 2025

# First, the good news: Overnight at Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.94% to close at a record high, while the Dow and S&P 500 gained 0.49% and 0.61%, respectively, and most importantly, logged their first gains in three sessions.

# The Positive Catalyst: Investors cheer Fed-rate cut talks.

# Gift Nifty is pointing to open with positive bias as investors cheer Fed-rate cut talks.

# Our call of the day however suggests it’s likely to be a choppy and whipsaw kind of day for the benchmark Nifty.

# Blame it on tariff muddy outlook. Strictly speaking, tariff volatility is back on the front pages and the negative takeaway is that there is no end in sight for tariff uncertainties.

# This Thursday morning, Japanese Nikkei is trading with negative bias amidst stalled trade negotiations between the US and Japan.

# The street fears that Trump’s tariff threats could dampen global growth and curb demand for industrial metals.

# Long story short: Proceed with caution at Dalal Street.

# 7:00 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:
GIFT Nifty: (+45, 25575)
Dow Futures: (-55, 44404)
Nasdaq 100 Futures (-31, 22834)

Nikkei (-230, 39591)
Hang Seng (-27, 23865)

Dow Jones (+218, 44458)
Nasdaq Composite (+193, 20611)
Bovespa (-1822, 137481).

# MARKET TRENDS:
Global cues: Positive
FII: (+77.00 crores)
DII: (+920.83 crores)
Sentiment: Bullish
Market Breadth: Positive
Technicals: Overbought conditions.
F&O: 25000 - 26000 zone.

India VIX 11.94 (-2.09%)
USD/INR Futures (29th July) 85.77
Nifty PCR (31st July) 1.19
Bank Nifty PCR (31st July) 0.96

# Nifty Outlook: Aside from Trump tariff news, all eyes will be on TCS Q1 results to trickle in today after market hours.

# WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:

NIFTY (CMP 25476):
SUPPORT: 25415/25221
RESISTANCE: 25670/26277
RANGE: 25400-25650
BIAS: Positive
21 DMA: 25217
50 DMA: 24919
200 DMA: 24091

SENSEX (CMP 83536):
SUPPORT: 83251/82733
RESISTANCE: 84100/85978
RANGE: 83300-84300
BIAS: Positive
21 DMA: 82691
50 DMA: 81925
200 DMA: 79329

BANK NIFTY (CMP 57214)
SUPPORT: 56900/56100
RESISTANCE: 57615/58300
RANGE: 56700-57700
BIAS: Positive
21 DMA: 56581
50 DMA: 55847
200 DMA: 52245

WHAT HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN OVERNIGHT TRADE:

# The good news was that the ‘Fed Minutes from the June 17-18 FOMC Meeting Minutes point to lower inflation ahead’ as Fed members considered a reduction in the fed funds rate, noting that upward pressure on inflation from tariffs may be temporary or modest, and that some weakening of economic activity and labor market conditions could occur.

However, few Fed officials makers highlighted that uncertainty about the outlook was elevated due to trade policy, other government policies, and geopolitical risks, but that overall uncertainty had diminished since the previous meeting.

# As on Wednesday’s close, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% to 20,611, the S&P 500 was up 0.6%% at 6,263, and the Dow Jones rose 0.5% to 44,458.

# Brazilian Bovespa tumbled 1.3% after President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, citing unfair trade practices.

# Copper prices traded firm at $5.59 per pound as the theme revolves around Trump announcing plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports.

# Gold prices ($3319 per ounce) was seen consolidating with positive bias.

# WTI crude oil futures were seen consolidating with slight positive bias, now near the $68.19 per barrel.

STOCK MARKET NEWS:

# The big trading theme revolves around 2-catalysts:

1) Tariff threats.
2) TCS officially sets afire the ceremonial starters pistol for Q1 earning season on July 10th after market hours. TCS press conference is likely at 5:30 pm

# Now, here is next big news making headlines this Thursday…

‘Fed Minutes from the June 17-18 FOMC Meeting Minutes point to lower inflation ahead’

…while the majority of policymakers continued to have concerns regarding the inflationary pressures anticipated from President Donald Trump's implementation of import taxes aimed at altering global trade,

# We will spy with one big eye if inflation shock in the US from tariffs is "temporary or modest."

# Our call of the day suggests Nifty shall swing between small gains and small loss.

# The biggest support to watch on Nifty is placed at 25221 mark.

Technically speaking, confirmation of strength is only above the 25670 mark.

# The Gyan Mantra: Stay nimble as there could be some "whipsaw" in the near term.

# Amongst stock specific action:

1) Reliance Industries fell 1.21% on media reports that its telecom and digital arm, Reliance Jio Platforms, has shelved plans to go public in 2025.

2) Tata Motors is likely to trade sluggish in near term after the company’s global wholesales (including Jaguar Land Rover) declined 9% to 2,99,664 units compared with Q1 FY26. Global wholesale of all Tata Motors’ commercial vehicles and the Tata Daewoo range in Q1 FY26 was at 87,569, lower by 6% over Q1 FY25.

3) JSW Steel slipped 0.44% despite the company recording consolidated steel production of 7.26 million tonnes in Q1 FY26, up 14% as compared with the production volume of 6.35 million tonnes reported in Q1 FY25.

4) Aurionpro Solutions rose 0.93% after the company announced that it has secured a multi-million-dollar contract to deploy its digital banking platform for a leading African bank.

# Now, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

Nifty (25476): Buy between 25400-25450 zone. Stop at 25171. Targets 25670/25750. Aggressive targets at 26100-26277.35 zone.

Bank Nifty (57214): Buy between 56900-57100 zone. Stop at 56011. Targets 57450/57700. Aggressive targets at 58300-58500 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bullish on BDL, NTPC, and M&M on any early intraday weakness with an interweek perspective.

# The 1 Stock to Buy Now: Buy BDL (CMP 1985): Buy at CMP. Stop at 1923. Targets 2007/2023. Aggressive targets at 2097. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: Massive breakout play on cards. The stock enjoyed strong sessions in yesterday's session, up 0.79%. Momentum oscilitors in bullish mode. Key interweek support 1937. Major hurdles at 2097.

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