Morning Action @ 7:00 AM — Wednesday, December 17th 2025.

# Gift Nifty hints at a steady opening, but caution remains the watchword as bears continue to lurk around Dalal Street.

# Our Call of the Day: Nifty risks extending its losing streak to a third straight session, with a gloomy trading setup where pessimism is likely to outweigh optimism.

# The 2-Biggest Negative Catalysts:

1) Rupee weakness: The Indian rupee extended its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session, with USD/INR climbing toward 91.45, adding macro stress and dampening sentiment.

2) Relentless foreign outflows: Continued FII selling, amid lingering US–India trade frictions, further dampening on domestic equities.

# Long Story Short: Rallies are likely to face selling pressure — trade light on leveraged long positions and stay cautious.

# 6:00 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:
GIFT Nifty ????????: (+34, 25950)
Dow Futures: (+50, 48165)
Nasdaq 100 Futures (-7, 25126)

Nikkei (-16, 49367)
Hang Seng (Closed, 25235)

Dow Jones (-302, 48114)
Nasdaq Composite (+54, 23111)
Bovespa (-3904, 158578).

# MARKET TRENDS:
Global cues: Negative
FII: (-2381.90 crores)
DII: (+1077.50 crores)
Sentiment: Bearish
Market Breadth: Negative
Technicals: Overbought conditions
F&O: 25500 - 26500 zone.

INDIA VIX 10.07 (-1.73%)
USD/INR Futures (December) (91.08)
NIFTY PCR (30th December) 1.05
Bank Nifty PCR (30th December) 0.76

# Nifty Outlook: Nifty Outlook: Not every session can be an up day, but the key negative is Nifty slipping decisively away from its all-time highs. Expect upside to remain capped on sharp rallies, with sentiment staying cautious.

# WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:

NIFTY (CMP 25860):
SUPPORT: 25693/25318
RESISTANCE: 26100/26326
RANGE: 25700-26000
BIAS: Negative
21 DMA: 26024
50 DMA: 25789
200 DMA: 24752

SENSEX (CMP 84680)
SUPPORT: 84100/82670
RESISTANCE: 85300/86200
RANGE: 84000-85000
BIAS: Negative
21 DMA: 85155
50 DMA: 84259
200 DMA: 81147

BANK NIFTY (CMP 59035)
SUPPORT: 58300/57157
RESISTANCE: 59551/60200
RANGE: 58300-59300
BIAS: Negative
21 DMA: 59280
50 DMA: 58300
200 DMA: 55326

WHAT HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN OVERNIGHT TRADE:

# The trading theme at Wall Street revolved around a rising unemployment rate which rose to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September – its highest level in more than four years.

# As on Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6% at 48,114 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% at 6,800 – their third straight drop. The Nasdaq Composite managed to gain 0.2% to end at 23,111.

# Wall Street will turn its attention to the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be wired on Thursday,, which is unlikely to provide a “clean” read on inflation due to the absence of October data.

# Gold prices ($4313 per ounce) gained, approaching an all-time high, supported by expectations of more US interest rate cuts. Last week, the Fed delivered its third 25bps rate cut of the year but signaled a less hawkish outlook than markets had expected.

Meanwhile, gold is up nearly 62% this year and pacing toward its strongest annual performance since 1979.

# The bigger story however is crude oil’s collapse. WTI prices plunged 2.7% overnight to $55.27 per barrel, their lowest close since February 2021, and are now down 23% year-to-date — the worst annual performance since 2018.

The slide reflects rising OPEC supply and growing optimism that a Russia–Ukraine peace deal may be closer than expected.

# STOCK MARKET NEWS:

# Before we start, a recap of Tuesday’s trading:
Nifty ended lower in yesterday’s trade — for the 2nd straight day, as volatility and pessimism continued to be the hallmark of the trading session.

# Bullish traders were actually unnerved as Nifty fell with a thud. Bank Nifty mirrors Nifty’s fall. Nifty Defence and Nifty Reality tanked 1.40% each.

# Our Call of the Day: Nifty risks extending its losing streak to a third straight session — A gloomy trading day lies ahead—pessimism is set to outweigh optimism.

# THE 2-KEY SENTIMENT DAMPENER:

1) Rupee weakness persists, hovering near ₹91.45/USD, adding macro stress.
2) FII outflows remain elevated — FY26-to-date net selling stands at ₹155925 crore.

# The 2-biggest debate:
1) AI Boom or AI Bust?
The street’s concern is that even if AI works, and even if it gets adopted very fast, it might not make profit.

2) Hiring in US rose in November, but so did unemployment. Well, is rise in unemployment pointing to recession?

# The Good News: WTI crude oil futures ($55.55) traded with negative bias, the lowest since early 2021, as persistent oversupply pressures outweighed geopolitical risks.

The world is swimming in oil, and sliding gasoline prices are offering much-needed relief on the inflation front.

# The other 2-Positive Catalysts in the Backdrop:
The rate cuts by the RBI and the US Federal Reserve, coupled with an improving economic outlook, set a bullish backdrop for 2026.

# What Technicals Tells Us On Nifty:
Technically, Nifty’s near-term setup remains fragile as long as it hovers below the all-time high of 26,326, with sellers actively capping every bounce.

While bears continue to dictate momentum, the crucial support at 25,693 remains the line in the sand — a breakdown below this level could accelerate downside pressure.

# Long Story Short: All eyes now turn to the November US CPI data on Thursday, which will be crucial in shaping expectations around the Fed’s future rate path.

Caution remains the watchword as the bears are likely to be everywhere!

# Bottom-line: A bearish day out for Nifty and its frontline stocks amidst overbought technicals, fading bullish momentum, persistent FII selling, a weakening INR, and the absence of major triggers collectively tilt the scales in favor of the bears.

# STOCKS IN SPOTLIGHT:

1) Shares of Axis Bank slid 5.12% after reports suggested a delay in net interest margin (NIM) recovery, raising concerns over near-term earnings momentum amid higher funding costs and slower repricing of deposits.
(Source: Business Standard)

2) Eternal tumbled 4.67% on heavy volumes, hitting a 5-month low, as investors booked profits after a strong rally earlier this year and reassessed valuations amid regulatory and macro uncertainties.

Sentiment has further weakened after Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa cautioned that India’s quick-commerce boom may be nearing a tipping point.

3) Vedanta's stock price surged 4.2% after NCLT approved its demerger plan, allowing the conglomerate to split into multiple sector-focused entities. The ruling clears way for Vedanta's vast operations to split into five separate units, of which four will focus on aluminum, power, oil & gas, and iron ore, respectively

(Source: liveMint, Moneycontrol, business Standard)

# Now, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

Nifty (25860): Sell at CMP. Stop 26411. Targets 25693/25503. Aggressive targets at 25318-25350 zone.

Bank Nifty (59035): Sell at CMP. Stop at 60501. Targets 58300/57900. Aggressive targets at 57157-57300 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bearish on BSE, HAL and MAZGAON DOCK on any early excessive intraday strength with an interweek/Intermonth perspective.

# The 1 Stock to Buy Right Now: Buy MANAPPURAM (284): Buy at CMP. Stop at 261. Targets 297/309. Aggressive targets at 323. (Interweek Strategy). Rationale: Momentum Play. Signalling a massive breakout on the upside. Key interweek support 263. Major hurdles only at 297 mark. The sequence of higher high/low is intact on weekly and monthly time-frames. 200-DMA at 258.

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