Morning Action @ 7:00 AM — Thursday, December 4th 2025.

# The Good News: In overnight trade, Wall Street indices logged solid back-to-back gains and most importantly, are at the doorsteps of fresh new record territory.

# The Positive catalyst: ‘Bad news is good news again’ as Fed rate-cut expectations rise after surprisingly weak ADP jobs data for November.

# Hopefully, the renewed optimism from Wall Street could lend support to Indian equities.

# So, amidst this backdrop, the large wave of selling doesn’t seem probable. In fact, dip buying should be the gyan mantra.

# Nifty could also attract buying at lower levels on hopes of an RBI rate cut on December 5.

# Long Story Short: Bulls may to regroup at lower levels. Aggressive risk-on sentiment appears likely today — only if Nifty manages to hold its big support at 25851 mark.

# 7:00 AM GLOBAL UPDATE:
GIFT Nifty:  (-43, 26093)
Dow Futures: (+90, 47973)
Nasdaq 100 Futures (+5, 25612)

Nikkei (+555, 50420)
Hang Seng (+43, 25804)

Dow Jones (+408, 47883)
Nasdaq Composite (+40, 23454)
Bovespa (+663, 161755).

# MARKET TRENDS:
Global cues: Positive
FII: (-3206.92 crores)
DII: (+4730.41 crores)
Sentiment: Neutral
Market Breadth: Neutral
Technicals: Consolidation zone
F&O: 25500 - 26500 zone.

INDIA VIX 11.21 (-0.13%)
USD/INR Futures (December) (90.34)
NIFTY PCR (30th December) 1.11
Bank Nifty PCR (30th December) 0.97

# Nifty Outlook: Domestic liquidity and supportive global cues continue to anchor the bull case.

But the durability of this rally now hinges on two key swing factors — a weakening INR and the increasingly cautious stance of FIIs.

For now, the bears appear to have the marginal advantage.

# WHAT TECHNICALS TELLS US ON NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:

NIFTY (CMP 25986):
SUPPORT: 25703/25317
RESISTANCE: 26157/26327
RANGE: 25800-26100
BIAS: Negative
21 DMA: 25925
50 DMA: 25596
200 DMA: 24617

SENSEX (CMP 85107)
SUPPORT: 84000/82671
RESISTANCE: 85650/86160
RANGE: 84400-85400
BIAS: Neutral
21 DMA: 84714
50 DMA: 83564
200 DMA: 80739

BANK NIFTY (CMP 59348)
SUPPORT: 58900/57157
RESISTANCE: 60100/60900
RANGE: 58700-59700
BIAS: Neutral
21 DMA: 58799
50 DMA: 57535
200 DMA: 54876

WHAT HAPPENED AT WALL STREET IN OVERNIGHT TRADE:

# Wall Street wrapped up Wednesday’s session on a firm footing, supported by:

1) Rising confidence in an improving corporate earnings outlook

2) Growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10

# The Street is keenly awaiting President Donald Trump’s signal on the next Fed Chair.
Trump said he will reveal his choice in early 2026, though markets remain far more focused on the upcoming Fed meeting for immediate policy cues.

# The ADP National Employment Report has all but sealed a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. Private-sector payrolls were down 32,000 in November vs a FactSet-compiled consensus forecast for 40,000 new jobs.

# CME FedWatch shows an 89.2% probability the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates by 25 basis points when it meets next week.

# Gold prices ($4210 per ounce) was in consolidative mode after prices reached a six-week peak. That said, mounting expectations of a US interest rate cut next week acted as positive catalyst.

Meanwhile, gold is up nearly 60% this year and pacing toward its strongest annual performance since 1979.

# WTI crude oil futures ($59.05) are trading with negative bias as traders monitored geopolitical developments in Venezuela and Ukraine and their potential impact on oil supply. Attacks on Russian energy assets also weighed against the lingering view of an oversupplied market.

# STOCK MARKET NEWS:

# Market Recap:
In yesterday’s trade, Nifty ended below the psychological 26000 mark and most importantly, the drubbing continued for the 4th straight day.

The market breadth (12:38) was clearly in favour of the Bears.

The positive takeaway however was that Bank Nifty rebounded from lower levels as the expectations remain elevated for a strong year-end finish.

# The 2-Big Questions:
Will Nifty’s bullish traders have to brace for another drop?
Will the FPI come back strongly?

# What Technicals Tells Us On Nifty:
Technically, Nifty’s near-term trend stays vulnerable as long as it trades below its all-time high of 26,326, with sellers defending every bounce.

However, there’s a strong chance that bulls will regroup near the major support at 25,703 and attempt to flip momentum decisively, reopening the path toward fresh record highs.

Bulls Kneel and Pray as Bears Dominate — but Nifty’s 25,703 Support Still Holds the Key.

# The Biggest Headwinds:
# Our call of the day suggests Nifty bulls are unlikely to plot a meaningful reversal on backdrop of 3-negative catalysts:

1) Manufacturing PMI Slumps:
India’s PMI dropped to a nine-month low at 56.6, indicating cooling domestic momentum and softer export demand — further dampening sentiment.

2) Rupee Weakness Deepens:
The INR hit a fresh lifetime low of ₹90.30 per USD, pressured by persistent dollar demand from corporates, importers, and foreign portfolio investors.

3) Relentless FII Selling:
Year-to-date FII outflows have swollen to ₹1,40,490 crore, reinforcing the bearish undertone.

# The Key Catalysts Ahead:
1) A key RBI policy decision and US payrolls on December 5 — potentially a major volatility trigger.

2) Geopolitics enters the frame with Putin’s India visit (Dec 4–5),

3) Mid-month attention shifts to global central banks, with the Fed meeting on December 10.

# The 2-Big Positive Catalysts:
1) Dual Rate-Cut Hopes from both the U.S. Fed and the RBI .
2) U.S.–India Trade Deal Optimism

# Bottom-line: An up-and-down session is quite likely as overbought technical conditions, FIIs selling + Weaking INR + no new triggers = bears back in action.

# Long Story Short: Nifty’s rally is at a crossroads with stronger headwinds for now — but a dovish RBI could still pull a rabbit out of the hat and propel the index back toward its all-time high of 26,325.80.

For now, the bears appear to have the marginal advantage.

# Our call of the day suggests Nifty bulls are unlikely to plot a meaningful reversal on backdrop of 3-negative catalysts:

# STOCKS IN SPOTLIGHT:

1) Biocon (+2.88%) gained after Biocon Biologics, a subsidiary of Biocon, has inked a settlement agreement with Amgen Inc., paving the way for the global rollout of its Denosumab biosimilars.

The deal enables the company to commercialize Vevzuo and Evfraxy across Europe starting December 2, 2025, while access to the rest of the world also opens up. Other terms of the settlement remain confidential.

2) Vodafone Idea (+4.34%, 10.57) jumps out of the roof after reports suggest Telecom Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia indicated that the Centre may finalise the company’s AGR relief recommendations soon.

3) Emmvee Photovoltaic (+1.98%) stayed in the spotlight, extending its momentum after hitting the upper circuit in yesterday’s trade.

The catalyst: The company posted a stellar Q2 FY26 consolidated net profit of ₹237.86 crore, a jump of nearly 7x (577%) YoY versus ₹35.12 crore last year. On a sequential basis, profit was up 27% QoQ from ₹187.67 crore in Q1 FY26.

4) The Nifty PSU Bank index was down nearly 3.05% to 8,255

The shares of PSU banks dropped after government clarified that it has no plans to raise foreign direct investment (FDI) limit in these lenders from 20 percent to 49 percent.

(SBI (-1.71%), Indian Bank (-5.52%), PNB (-431%), other PSU bank stocks after FinMin clarifies no proposal to hike FDI limit. This falls comes after the stocks recorded sharp gains following earlier reports.

(Source: Business Standard, Moneycontrol, Economictimes, Capitalmarket)

# Now, here is the preferred trade on Nifty and Bank Nifty:

Nifty (25986): Sell between 26050-26100 zone. Stop 26521. Targets 25901/25703. Aggressive targets at 25300-25500 zone.

Bank Nifty (59348): Sell between 59500-59700 zone. Stop at 60701. Targets 58900/58300. Aggressive targets at 57157-57500 zone.

# Our chart of the day is bearish on COAL INDIA, MAZGAON DOCK, and TITAN on any early excessive intraday strength with an interweek/Intermonth perspective.

# The 1 Stock to Buy Right Now:
Buy BIOCON
Entry Price: 411
Target: 467
Stop Loss: 393
Holding Period: 0-180 days
Rationale: Momentum Play
Risk /Reward : Rs. 18/Rs. 56 ; (4.38/13.63)

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